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Private market assets in 2025

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Favourable macroeconomic environment for private markets

Risk assets should find support in the higher interest rate regime. Even though rates may have peaked in many countries, cuts – notably by the U.S. Federal Reserve – are likely to be slower and smaller than many expect, in our view.

Along with expected returns reflecting higher rates, several medium- to long-term factors are also likely to support private market assets, allowing investors to explore long-term investment themes:

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Infrastructure
Infrastructure

The AI boom is causing an unprecedented boost in power generation demand. This creates opportunities in clean energy, including solar and wind infrastructure around the world, and we anticipate demand will also grow for nuclear energy, transmission infrastructure to accommodate new development, natural gas- related investments and data centres.

The long-term thesis for infrastructure assets is supported by steady demand for many of the essential services these assets provide. Inelastic demand and often a monopoly-type market position typically mean that infrastructure investments are non-cyclical, thus providing diversification and an ability to reduce overall portfolio volatility. Many also offer income from long-term contractual cash flows that often adjust for inflation or cost of capital.

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Private capital
Private capital

Slower-than-expected U.S. interest rate cuts reflect economic strength, and economic activity bodes well for private capital. GDP growth creates favourable operating conditions for the businesses investors can lend to (private credit) or take ownership positions in (private equity). And even as Europe experiences more tepid growth, the environment remains constructive for private capital.

We expect the investor-friendly private credit terms we have experienced over recent years, namely lower borrower leverage and higher yields, will sustain. Financing costs have reduced and should ease further.

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Real estate
Real estate

We see evidence of a recovery in the real estate market, with interest rates likely to be on a downward trajectory in many markets. Non-office-related private real estate has bottomed, as the capital and financial headwinds facing landlords have faded. Rent and occupancy growth are healthy, and investor demand is returning for most sectors. The improving climate is driving increased competition for real estate deals, an indicator of an impending recovery for the asset class.

These signals should encourage investors who have been fearful of the asset class amid higher rates to take advantage of opportunities that are underpinned by long-term, structural megatrends.

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Natural capital
Natural capital

Investing in sustainable timberland and farmland taps into the growing global population’s demand for resources and supporting environmentally friendly and socially responsible food, fibre and timber production. And against the current backdrop of higher-for-longer interest rates and inflation, natural capital can provide portfolios with a level of inflation protection.

Timberland and farmland investments can also serve sustainability objectives. They have the lowest average carbon intensity (net CO2 emissions per dollar invested) among alternative and traditional asset classes, with the ability to sequester and store carbon and to generate verified carbon credits. As environmental markets for climate and nature benefits continue to develop and grow, we expect to see increasing opportunities for private capital to address global environmental challenges through land-based investments.

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Sources
This material is not intended to be a recommendation or investment advice, does not constitute a solicitation to buy, sell or hold a security or an investment strategy, and is not provided in a fiduciary capacity. The information provided does not take into account the specific objectives or circumstances of any particular investor, or suggest any specific course of action. Investment decisions should be made based on an investor’s objectives and circumstances and in consultation with his or her advisors. The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such.

A word on risk
All investments carry a certain degree of risk and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Equity investing involves risk. Investments are also subject to political, currency and regulatory risks. These risks may be magnified in emerging markets. Diversification is a technique to help reduce risk. There is no guarantee that diversification will protect against a loss of income. Investing in municipal bonds involves risks such as interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk, including the possible loss of principal. The value of the portfolio will fluctuate based on the value of the underlying securities. There are special risks associated with investments in high yield bonds, hedging activities and the potential use of leverage. Portfolios that include lower rated municipal bonds, commonly referred to as “high yield” or “junk” bonds, which are considered to be speculative, the credit and investment risk is heightened for the portfolio. Credit ratings are subject to change. AAA, AA, A, and BBB are investment grade ratings; BB, B, CCC/CC/C and D are below-investment grade ratings. As an asset class, real assets are less developed, more illiquid, and less transparent compared to traditional asset classes. Investments will be subject to risks generally associated with the ownership of real estate-related assets and foreign investing, including changes in economic conditions, currency values, environmental risks, the cost of and ability to obtain insurance, and risks related to leasing of properties. Investors should be aware that alternative investments including private equity and private debt are speculative, subject to substantial risks including the risks associated with limited liquidity, the use of leverage, short sales and concentrated investments and may involve complex tax structures and investment strategies. Alternative investments may be illiquid, there may be no liquid secondary market or ready purchasers for such securities, they may not be required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, there may be delays in distributing tax information to investors, they are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as other types of pooled investment vehicles, and they may be subject to high fees and expenses, which will reduce profits. Alternative investments are not appropriate for all investors and should not constitute an entire investment program. Investors may lose all or substantially all of the capital invested. The historical returns achieved by alternative asset vehicles is not a prediction of future performance or a guarantee of future results, and there can be no assurance that comparable returns will be achieved by any strategy. Impact investing and/or Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) managers may take into consideration factors beyond traditional financial information to select securities, which could result in relative investment performance deviating from other strategies or broad market benchmarks, depending on whether such sectors or investments are in or out of favor in the market.

This information does not constitute investment research as defined under MiFID. Nuveen, LLC provides investment solutions through its investment specialists.

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