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Following a broad third-quarter rally, global equity markets generally struggled in the fourth quarter. Investors weighed the prospect of fewer rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and potentially inflationary policies under the incoming Trump administration against the earnings growth ability of technology stocks and expectations for lower corporate taxes and looser regulations in a politically transformed Washington, D.C.
Key takeaways
- Central banks face a variety of risks heading into 2025. The Fed remains vigilant against the possibility of inflation reigniting in 2025, as the “last mile” in its battle against higher prices has proved challenging. Meanwhile, the ECB must contend with sluggish growth in the eurozone, and the PBoC has pledged looser policy to ward off deflation in China.
- Although we believe U.S. inflation could moderate more thanks to declining housing and core services costs, it’s likely to remain higher than the Fed’s 2% target in 2025. U.S. GDP growth looks set to slow but should hover above pre-Covid levels, supported by rising incomes and strong consumer spending.
- Geographically, we still think U.S. stocks offer the best combination of defensive characteristics and growth opportunities. Within the U.S., we’re becoming more positive toward small caps and infrastructure, two sectors that may benefit from shifts in tax policies and more protectionist trade practices.
- Outside the U.S., we are increasingly cautious about both developed and emerging markets (EM) based on expectations for weaker economic expansion and the likelihood of a stronger U.S. dollar. Europe offers select opportunities, particularly in the health care and energy sectors.
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Endnotes
The views and opinions expressed are for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as market or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on the information presented herein by way of example. Performance data shown represents past performance and does not predict or guarantee future results. Investing involves risk; principal loss is possible.
All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such. For term definitions and index descriptions, please access the glossary on nuveen.com. Please note, it is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Dividend yield is one component of performance and should not be the only consideration for investment. Dividends are not guaranteed and will fluctuate. This report should not be regarded by the recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. It is important to review your investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs before choosing an investment style or manager.
Because infrastructure portfolios concentrate their investments in infrastructure-related securities, portfolios have greater exposure to adverse economic, regulatory, political, legal, and other changes affecting the issuers of such securities. Infrastructure-related businesses are subject to a variety of factors that may adversely affect their business or operations, including high interest costs in connection with capital construction programs, costs associated with environmental and other regulations, the effects of economic slowdown and surplus capacity, increased competition from other providers of services, uncertainties concerning the availability of fuel at reasonable prices, the effects of energy conservation policies and other factors. Additionally, infrastructure-related entities may be subject to regulation by various governmental authorities and may also be affected by governmental regulation of rates charged to customers, service interruption and/or legal challenges due to environmental, operational or other mishaps and the imposition of special tariffs and changes in tax laws, regulatory policies and accounting standards. There is also the risk that corruption may negatively affect publicly funded infrastructure projects, especially in emerging markets, resulting in delays and cost overruns. In addition, investing internationally presents certain risks not associated with investing solely in the U.S., such as currency fluctuation, political and economic change, social unrest, changes in government relations, differences in accounting and the lesser degree of accurate public information available, foreign company risk, market risk and correlation risk. It is important to review your investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs before choosing an investment style or manager.
Important information on risk
All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including possible loss of principal, and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Equity investments are subject to market risk or the risk that stocks will decline in response to such factors as adverse company news or industry developments or a general economic decline. Debt or fixed income securities are subject to market risk, credit risk, interest rate risk, call risk, tax risk, political and economic risk, and income risk. As interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Non-U.S. investments involve risks such as currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, lack of liquidity and differing legal and accounting standards. These risks are magnified in emerging markets. This report should not be regarded by the recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. It is important to review your investment objectives, risk tolerance and liquidity needs before choosing an investment style or manager.
Nuveen, LLC provides investment solutions through its investment specialists.
This information does not constitute investment research as defined under MiFID.
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