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Election outlook

Seize the moment: post-election insights

Read our post-election summary

How policy impacts portfolio construction

We believe investors should be considering the policy and planning shifts subsequent to the election cycle. Unlike other global events of this scale that yield more immediate outcomes, the economic effects of a presidential election tend to play out over a longer period of time, which is why it's important to stay invested and focus on the bigger picture that will unfold following the election.

Election-related portfolio considerations

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Volatility
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Volatility
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Volatility

While election results typically have little impact on markets, election years do tend to be more volatile. Investors this year may be particularly concerned about election chaos in the midst of a highly valued and concentrated equity market. In this environment, risk management and portfolio discipline remain crucial. Read more about how diversification can help manage risks.

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Explore additional insights

Chart: Consider defensive equity strategies
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Recession potential
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Recession potential
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Recession potential

Recent declines in job creation and an uptick in the unemployment rate have led to heightened recession concerns this election season. While a soft landing is still very much in the cards, investors should prepare portfolios to be resilient across both scenarios. A recession would likely lead to a decline in interest rates and benefit fixed income sectors. We suggest exploring strategies that may lock in still-attractive fixed income yields while balancing credit and interest rate risk. 

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Chart: A recession could lead to lower yields and may benefit fixed income assets
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Fed rate cuts
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Fed rate cuts
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Fed rate cuts

As the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates, investors anticipating a significant duration tailwind may be disappointed. Instead, we suggest that investors consider seeking return through income, taking advantage of attractive yields in a portfolio of diversified across asset classes. Read more about how Fed rate cuts might affect an investment portfolio.

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Chart: Even at current yields, cash provides little real return
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Tax-awareness
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Tax-awareness
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Tax-awareness

Regardless of potential shifts in tax rates, investment-related tax planning remains an important consideration, meaning we expect an ongoing focus on tax-loss harvesting strategies and in investment areas such as municipal bonds and real estate.

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 Chart: Tax equivalent income becomes more attractive as rates go up
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Explore post-elections insights from Nuveen specialists on the economic impact of the change to Congress and the presidency and their potential policies. Read our post-election summary. 

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Related insights
After the voting: economic, investment and portfolio construction implications of the 2024 election
Explore post-elections insights from Nuveen specialists on the economic impact of the change to Congress and the presidency and their potential policies.
How the U.S. election may shape the muni market
The U.S. election will have policy implications for select municipal bond sectors, and changing tax policy could affect the asset class.
Annual 2025 outlook: Wheels down, elevation up: Five themes for a new economic landing
We think the economy is experiencing a different kind of landing that defies easy categorization. Our latest outlook offers thematic travel tips to start your year.

This material, along with any views and opinions expressed within, are presented for informational and educational purposes only as of the date of production/writing and may change without notice at any time based on numerous factors, such as changing market, economic or other conditions, legal and regulatory developments, additional risks and uncertainties and may not come to pass. There is no representation or warranty (express or implied) as to the current accuracy, reliability or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information, and it should not be relied on as such.

This material may contain “forward-looking” information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, estimates of yields and/or market returns, and proposed or expected portfolio composition. Moreover, certain historical performance information of other investment vehicles or composite accounts managed by Nuveen may be included in this material and such performance information is presented by way of example only. No representation is made that the performance presented will be achieved, or that every assumption made in achieving, calculating or presenting either the forward‑looking information or the historical performance information herein has been considered or stated in preparing this material. Economic and market forecasts are subject to uncertainty and may change based on varying market conditions, political and economic developments. Any changes to assumptions that may have been made in preparing this material could have a material impact on any of the data and/or information presented herein by way of example. 

Please note, it is not possible to invest directly in an index.

For all index definitions shown in this material please click on the glossary link at the bottom of this page. 

Important information on risk

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the possible loss of principal, and there is no assurance that an investment will provide positive performance over any period of time. Certain products and services may not be available to all entities or persons. There is no guarantee that investment objectives will be achieved. See the applicable product literature for details. 

Before investing, carefully consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other information that should be read carefully, please request a prospectus or summary prospectus from your financial professional or Nuveen at 800.257.8787

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